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|Outlook Ekonomi 2017|
We still affirm our outlook on the world economic growth to improve in 2017 with an estimated growth rate edged up to 3.4% in 2017 compared to 2016 grew by 3.2%. There are several reasons why we believe that the global economic growth will be slightly higher in 2017. Firstly, the increase of industrial production index in a number of developed countries from the last quarter of 2016 until the month of January 2017. Second, the rising rate of inflation in the US, Japan, and the European Union showed an improvement of the people’s purchasing power. Third, the rise of leading indicators in several developed and developing indicates the potential improvements of economic growth in the next four quarters. We also predict that the decline of the economy will be limited in Russia and Brazil given the pace of leading indicators showed an increasing trend in those countries.
The US has just revised its economic growth from 1.8% to 2.1% in the fourth quarter of 2016 . The revision gave a positive signal for global economy. In addition, the stable economic growth in the Eurozone a fourth quarter of 2016 after the British exit from the European Union exhibited that the prospect of economic growth in this region is not as perceived as the expected. At the same time, Japan economic growth also stable in the fourth quarter of 2016 while China’s economy was slightly higher than most analysts expected.